Impulsos de demanda y oferta agregada y las fluctuaciones económicas en Santiago de Cali de 1996 a 2008

Abstract

For years, the debate about the economic growth has focused in formulate different types of politics to stimulate the economic activity. However, it hasn’t defined clearly the importance that supply and demand shocks have about the behavior product. This article examines the ability of impulse of side the on the supply and demand aggregate to generate the observed fluctuations in the production and prices in an economy as Santiago de Cali. This is done through of a propose of structural model autoregression vector (SVAR) with long-run restrictions (Blanchard and Quah, 1989). The results show that supply shocks are the main determinants of product behavior as long and short term, while the demand shocks are less important in the generation of fluctuations in the economy of the city. Therefore to generate a growing sustained of the production on time, it should follow politics aimed to improve the conditions of supply as encourage the technological change and the investment, flexible the factor markets, establish better conditions of security, etc.