Consumo intertemporal e ciclo de vida em um contexto de pandemia: uma aproximação experimental
Palavras-chave:
poupança, comportamento econômico, consumidor, método experimental, teoria da decisãoResumo
A pandemia de Covid-19 gerou incerteza entre os consumidores, um abrandamento do consumo e um aumento da poupança agregada em todo o mundo; os dados microeconómicos mostraram uma tendência para a despoupança e o consumo crescente. Estas variações motivam questões sobre as consequências do confinamento no consumo intertemporal, ao mesmo tempo que permitem fornecer novas evidências empíricas sobre modelos de ciclo de vida nas suas versões padrão ou neoclássica e comportamental. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar experimentalmente padrões de consumo intertemporais com base nos postulados de ambos os modelos de ciclo de vida. Para o efeito, foi proposto um exercício experimental de simulação de compras online de produtos básicos, no qual participaram 210 consumidores e foram submetidos a tratamentos que incluíram uma linha de base, cenários de aumento de rendimento e cenários de retirada sem rendimento. Os resultados permitiram verificar a existência de respostas consistentes com o modelo comportamental em 85% dos casos e com o modelo padrão para os restantes 15%, ou seja, as tendências para suavizar o consumo e aumentar a poupança foram minoria no grupo avaliado e O contexto de confinamento não se traduziu em comportamentos de consumo intertemporais mais autocontrolados.
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